FIRST TIER SPORTS
What is the real effect of drafting a quarterback in the 1st round?
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With the entire Jets nation riding on the hopes that Matt Sanchez will lead them to the promised land in the next few years I was curious to see what the actual outcomes have been for teams drafting a quarterback in the first round. I looked at all the first round QB picks from 1990 to 2000 to give me a clear look on how that players career panned out. I then looked at the players career win loss and the win loss of the team that drafted them for the next 5 years. Here is a look at what I cam up with:
Year drafted Player Team Player career win loss Team w/l next 5 years
1990 Jeff George Colts 46-78 29-51
1990 Andre Ware Lions 3-3 42-38
1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks 2-3 29-51
1991 Todd Marinovich Raiders 3-5 45-35
1992 David Klinger Bengals 4-20 26-54
1992 Tommy Maddox Broncos 15-20 45-35
1993 Rick Mirer Seahawks 24-44 35-45
1993 Drew Bledsoe Patriots 98-95 42-38
1994 Heath Shuler Redskins 8-14 32-48
1994 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers 58-55 37-43
1995 Steve McNair Oilers 91-62 44-36
1995 Kerry Collins Panthers 79-85 38-42
1997 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 1-0 47-33
1998 Peyton Manning Colts 117-59 42-38
1998 Ryan Leaf Chargers 4-17 27-53
1999 Tim Couch Browns 22-37 26-54
1999 Donovan Mcnabb Eagles 82-45 51-39
1999 Akili Smith Bengals 3-14 24-56
1999 Duante Culpepper Vikings 41-54 41-39
1999 Cade McNown Bears 3-12 35-45
2000 Chad Pennington Jets 43-34 44-36
Totals 747-756 49% 781-909 46%
Stats courtesy of pro football reference.
It's not surprising that the team win loss the next 5 years isn't very good. If you're drafting high you don't have a very good team and if you're drafting a quarterback it usually means you're not happy with you're current one. It also usually takes a few year for a quarterback to start winning. What I was surprised with is how many of the players were clear busts. 13 out of the 20 quarterback ended up being huge disappointments. 4 others (Bledsoe, Collins, Culpepper, Pennington) went on to have decent careers but still failed to live up to the expectations, combining to finish 7 games under .500 for their careers. Only 3 went on to become franchise quarterbacks (McNair, Manning and McNabb).
The 2000's aren't looking much better either. Although its to early to tell on some of the QB's their have been some big disappointments so far (Alex Smith, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr, Patrick Ramsey and Michael Vick). Well on pace to keep up with their 1990's counterparts.
-JJ Robichaud
With the entire Jets nation riding on the hopes that Matt Sanchez will lead them to the promised land in the next few years I was curious to see what the actual outcomes have been for teams drafting a quarterback in the first round. I looked at all the first round QB picks from 1990 to 2000 to give me a clear look on how that players career panned out. I then looked at the players career win loss and the win loss of the team that drafted them for the next 5 years. Here is a look at what I cam up with:
Year drafted Player Team Player career win loss Team w/l next 5 years
1990 Jeff George Colts 46-78 29-51
1990 Andre Ware Lions 3-3 42-38
1991 Dan McGwire Seahawks 2-3 29-51
1991 Todd Marinovich Raiders 3-5 45-35
1992 David Klinger Bengals 4-20 26-54
1992 Tommy Maddox Broncos 15-20 45-35
1993 Rick Mirer Seahawks 24-44 35-45
1993 Drew Bledsoe Patriots 98-95 42-38
1994 Heath Shuler Redskins 8-14 32-48
1994 Trent Dilfer Buccaneers 58-55 37-43
1995 Steve McNair Oilers 91-62 44-36
1995 Kerry Collins Panthers 79-85 38-42
1997 Jim Druckenmiller 49ers 1-0 47-33
1998 Peyton Manning Colts 117-59 42-38
1998 Ryan Leaf Chargers 4-17 27-53
1999 Tim Couch Browns 22-37 26-54
1999 Donovan Mcnabb Eagles 82-45 51-39
1999 Akili Smith Bengals 3-14 24-56
1999 Duante Culpepper Vikings 41-54 41-39
1999 Cade McNown Bears 3-12 35-45
2000 Chad Pennington Jets 43-34 44-36
Totals 747-756 49% 781-909 46%
Stats courtesy of pro football reference.
It's not surprising that the team win loss the next 5 years isn't very good. If you're drafting high you don't have a very good team and if you're drafting a quarterback it usually means you're not happy with you're current one. It also usually takes a few year for a quarterback to start winning. What I was surprised with is how many of the players were clear busts. 13 out of the 20 quarterback ended up being huge disappointments. 4 others (Bledsoe, Collins, Culpepper, Pennington) went on to have decent careers but still failed to live up to the expectations, combining to finish 7 games under .500 for their careers. Only 3 went on to become franchise quarterbacks (McNair, Manning and McNabb).
The 2000's aren't looking much better either. Although its to early to tell on some of the QB's their have been some big disappointments so far (Alex Smith, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, Jason Campbell, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, David Carr, Patrick Ramsey and Michael Vick). Well on pace to keep up with their 1990's counterparts.
-JJ Robichaud
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